Wonderful introduction:
One person’s happiness may be fake, but the happiness of a group of people can no longer distinguish between true and false. They squandered their youth to their heart's content, wishing they could burn it all away. Their posture was like a carnival before the end of the world.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: Supply concerns support oil prices, Fed rate cuts support gold prices, Powell did not rule out the possibility of further easing." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (December 11, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,226 per ounce. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected to support gold prices. Powell did not provide clarity on whether to cut interest rates again in the near future. guidance, but stated that it "does not include future interest rate hikes", which was interpreted by the market as the possibility of further interest rate cuts in January next year; U.S. crude oil traded around $58.83 per barrel. Oil prices closed higher on Wednesday, mainly affected by the news that the United States had seized an oil tanker near Venezuela, and the market's concerns about short-term oil supply intensified.
The IEA released its monthly crude oil market report, Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech, and OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve announced that it would lower the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, in line with consensus market expectations. Although the Federal Reserve signaled in its policy statement that it will pause further interest rate cuts in the short term and wait for more clear signals about the direction of the job market and inflation, investors still expect more easing policies in the future.
Main indexes rose across the board, with the S&P 500 index closing up 0.67% at 6886.68 points, close to a record high; the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 1.05% to 48057.75 points; the Nasdaq Index rose 0.33% to 23654.16 points. Small-cap stocks performed particularly well, with the Russell 2000 rising 1.3% to set a record close.
In terms of sectors, 9 of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 ended higher, with industrial stocks leading the way with a 1.8% gain. indivualAmong stocks, energy equipment manufacturer GE Vernova surged 15.6% as it was optimistic about the demand for artificial intelligence-related infrastructure and raised its revenue forecast for 2026. The overall market sentiment was positive, with the number of rising stocks on both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq significantly outnumbering those falling.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not provide clear guidance on whether to cut interest rates again in the near future at the press conference, but his statement that the labor market faces "considerable downside risks" was interpreted by the market as a dovish signal. Analysts pointed out that the market saw the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the future from Powell's cautious attitude towards the job market, which supported the stock market.
After the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut, the precious metals market showed a divergent trend on Wednesday. Gold prices ended higher after a volatile session, while silver prices climbed strongly to new all-time highs.
Spot gold rose 0.7% on Wednesday, as high as $4,238.59, as traders bought on dips after taking profits. At the same time, benefiting from the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in a divided vote.
Spot silver rose sharply, hitting a record high of $61.85 per ounce during the session. This year’s cumulative increase has reached 113%. Strong industrial demand, declining inventories and its status as a critical mineral in the United States have www.xmtdhf.cnbined to support silver prices. Platinum fell 2.4% to $1,654.55; palladium fell 2% to $1,475.94.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said after the meeting that the current interest rate policy is ready to deal with future economic conditions, but refused to say whether it will cut interest rates again in the near future. Analysts believe that despite the Fed's cautious attitude, the market still expects the possibility of further easing in the future, which provides support for gold.
Oil prices closed higher on Wednesday, mainly affected by the news that the United States had seized an oil tanker near Venezuela, and the market's concerns about short-term oil supply intensified.
As of the close, Brent crude oil rose 0.4% to US$62.21 per barrel; US crude oil also rose 0.4% to US$58.46 per barrel. In after-hours trading, gains in both benchmark oil prices widened to about 1%.
In the news, two U.S. officials confirmed that the U.S. Coast Guard seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, but did not disclose the specific name and exact location of the ship. Analysts pointed out that this move has exacerbated market concerns about the stability of oil supply from sanctioned countries such as Venezuela, Iran and Russia. Analysts said that if more similar seizures occur in the future, it may trigger more violent fluctuations in oil prices.
In addition, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, but Powell did not give clear guidance on the path of future interest rate cuts, saying that the policy was ready to respond to economic changes. In terms of supply and demand data, data from the U.S. Energy www.xmtdhf.cnrmation Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels last week, which was smaller than market expectations of 2.3 million barrels.
The U.S. dollar fell sharply against major currencies after the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut. The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations, but three policy members disagreed on this decision. The key point is that the Fed hinted in its policy statement that it may pause cutting interest rates at its next meeting in January to assess more economic data.
Putting further pressure on the U.S. dollar is the statement of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. He made it clear at the press conference that policymakers' "baseline scenario" does not include future interest rate hikes, saying the next move is "unlikely to be a rate hike."
Affected by this, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.6% to 98.66. EUR/USD rose 0.6% to 1.1694, USD/JPY fell 0.6% to 155.92, and USD/CHF fell 0.8% to 0.7996.
It is worth noting that although the Fed's latest "dot plot" median forecast shows that policymakers expect only one rate cut (25 basis points) in 2026, consistent with the September forecast, the interest rate futures market still expects two rate cuts in 2026. The market currently believes that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year is 78%. Analysts noted that concerns about slowing economic growth and a cooling labor market are offsetting the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to inflation, which together are contributing to the dollar's weakness.
On the 10th local time, US President Trump confirmed that the United States had seized an oil tanker near Venezuela. Earlier, two U.S. officials revealed that the United States had seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, an operation led by the U.S. Coast Guard. They did not reveal the name of the tanker or specify where the interception occurred. At present, the Venezuelan government has not responded to this.
1. No one regards raising interest rates as a basic scenario. The market believes that interest rates should either remain unchanged or cut. 2. Due to the impact of tariffs, inflation is still "rising" and inflation is still at a high level. If tariff factors are put aside, the inflation rate is low at around 2%. 3. Data show that the unemployment rate has increased slightly and employment growth has slowed significantly. Artificial intelligence may be one reason for the employment weakness, but it is not the main reason. 4. It has been moving towards the neutral interest rate and is now at the high end of the neutral interest rate range. 5. In order to ease the pressure on the money market, the scale of government bond purchases may be maintained at a high level in the www.xmtdhf.cning months. The scale of bond purchases is expected to decline thereafter. 6. The real estate market faces major challenges. Housing construction has been insufficient for a long time. A 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate may not have much impact on housing affordability. 7. The nomination process for the Federal Reserve Chairman will not hinder current tasks, and there will be no new plans after the expiration of the Federal Reserve Chairman’s term. 8. Will not rule on the Supreme Court’s decision on Fed Governor Cookcomment on the case. 9. The Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode as it determines future monetary policy decisions.
On the 10th local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced through social media that the Ukrainian team held the first meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant, presidential adviser Kushner and Larry Fink. This meeting was the opening meeting of the Ukrainian Reconstruction and Economic Recovery Document Working Group. The two sides had in-depth exchanges on key reconstruction issues, implementation mechanisms and future visions, and clarified the correct path to promote the implementation of many achievements in Ukraine. Uzbekistan has formulated a 20-point core position on the basic document to end the conflict, emphasizing that overall security is the prerequisite for economic security and business environment protection. The talks also finalized the follow-up contact mechanism, and Zelensky said that Ukraine will make every effort to advance the work to achieve substantive results.
The Fed dot plot shows that among 19 officials, 7 officials believe that interest rates should not be cut in 2026, and 4 officials believe that interest rates should be reduced A total of 25 basis points of interest rate cuts are expected, 4 officials believe that the cumulative interest rate reduction should be 50 basis points, 2 officials believe that the cumulative interest rate reduction should be 75 basis points, 1 official believes that the cumulative interest rate reduction should be 100 basis points, and 1 official believes that the cumulative interest rate reduction should be 150 basis points.
The U.S. Department of the Interior said that the Trump administration held its first oil and gas lease auction in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, and the winning bids submitted by oil www.xmtdhf.cnpanies for 181 blocks in federal waters totaled more than $279 million. Qualified bidders include subsidiaries of Chevron, Shell Group, BP and Repsol. According to data from the Ministry of Interior, a total of 30 www.xmtdhf.cnpanies submitted 219 bids.
According to the Associated Press, Venezuelan President Maduro said in a speech to supporters that the country is "ready to knock out the teeth of the North American empire if necessary." The background of these tough remarks was that U.S. President Trump confirmed that the United States had seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. This move was seen as a major escalation of U.S. pressure on the Venezuelan leadership. According to reports, Maduro did not directly mention the impounded oil tanker in his speech. Standing on the stage with senior officials, he stressed that only the ruling party can "guarantee peace, stability and harmonious development in Venezuela, South America and the Caribbean."
According to news on December 10, local time, an official announcement showed that the Trump administration plans to require visa-free foreign tourists to disclose their social media history for the past five years before entering the United States. The proposal, published in the Federal Register on the 9th, will apply to visa-free tourists from 42 countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Australia and Japan. Currently, these tourists are onlyAn exemption called the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) is required, but the system still requires them to provide certain personal www.xmtdhf.cnrmation.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has deployed the 2026 New Year's Day and Spring Festival consumption promotion activity of "Specialty Products to Seek New Year's Flavor". All localities are required to further implement the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the Consumption of Agricultural Products", seize the "two festivals" peak consumption season, plan and introduce practical measures to promote consumption, promote precise adaptation of supply and demand, innovate consumption scenarios, expand consumption space, effectively expand the consumption of agricultural products, and better meet the holiday consumption needs of urban and rural residents.
The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance responded to reporters’ questions on the issuance of special treasury bonds due for renewal in 2025 and said that for 2025 For the 750 billion yuan of special treasury bonds that are due to expire on December 12, 2020, the Ministry of Finance will continue the practice of previous years and continue to adopt a rolling issuance method to issue special treasury bonds due in 2025 to relevant banks in equal numbers. The funds raised will be used to repay the principal due that month. The 750 billion yuan of special treasury bonds due for renewal in 2025 will be issued in the national inter-bank bond market to relevant banks. The maturity types include 10-year 400 billion yuan and 15-year 350 billion yuan. The issuance process does not involve social investors, and individual investors cannot purchase. The renewal of special treasury bonds due in 2025 is a rolling issuance of the original special treasury bonds in equal amounts, which still corresponds to the original assets and liabilities and does not increase the fiscal deficit.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Supply concerns support oil prices, Fed rate cuts support gold prices. Powell did not rule out the possibility of further easing". It was carefully www.xmtdhf.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Sharing is as simple as a gust of wind can bring refreshing, as pure as a flower can bring fragrance. Gradually my dusty heart opened up, and I understood that sharing is actually as simple as the technology.